Is the New, Modern Approach to Pitching that Values Velocity Ruining Major League Baseball?
By Rex Kaplan
Baseball is approaching a dangerous territirory with the prevalence of having only three true outcomes: A strikeout, a walk, or a home run. Is it ruining the game?
Baseball is a beautiful game. Known as “America’s Past Time,” the sport is played and loved by many around the world — for good reason. In Major League Baseball, just more than 1,000 of the world’s best players compete under the bright lights of a packed stadium and in front of millions watching on TV for one common goal — to win. Within the game, there is no player more important than the pitcher.
The art of pitching is dynamic, adaptive, and laborious. It is undoubtedly one of the most difficult and premier positions in all of sports. Pitching requires precision, attention to detail, and control; to do it well takes the ability to outsmart one’s opponent and execute. Not only does the pitcher have complete control of the pace of the game, but he owns a majority of the control for the outcomes. Hall-of-fame manager Earl Weaver once said, “Momentum [in baseball] is only as good as the next day’s starting pitcher.”
At the Major League level, pitching is highest paid position. The median salary for a starting pitcher is north of $5M annually, while the median for all players is just around $3M. In 2021, seven of the ten highest players in MLB were pitchers (Spotrac). When it comes to winning baseball games, quality arms are irreplicable and a team can never have too many. After all, one of the most famous adages in all of sports is “pitching wins championships.”
It is no question that the game of baseball is, and has been for decades, changing. A game once won by small ball, stolen bases, excellent defense, and lengthy pitching outings is now approaching a threshold where it has only three true outcomes: strikeout, walk, or home run. In fact, the 2018 season was the first in history where strikeouts outpaced hits, “a trend that has accelerated” in the succeeding seasons (Washington Post). The average outing by a starter continues to decline in length, and reliver labor and reliance continues to rise. That said, in many cases, big games are won by a pitching staff from top-to-bottom, not just one individual; you need 27 outs, it doesn’t matter how you get them.
The analysis of all different pitch types requires a basic, fundamental understanding of what each pitch does and is intended to do. The sole purpose of utilizing multiple pitches — often ones that vary in velocity and break opposite ways — is to keep hitters unbalanced and unsure. The more a hitter is guessing, the bigger the advantage a pitcher has.
Every pitcher’s arsenal begins with a quality fastball — without a quality fastball, it’s hard to remain effective on the mound. Contrary to other pitches, a fastball has minimal lateral movement and relies solely on command and velocity. A well-placed fastball is tough for a hitter to do damage with — it is the fastest pitch a pitcher throws, minimizing the time a hitter has to react. Now, with rapidly modernizing technology in the sport, pitchers are throwing harder every year. In 2008, the average Major League fastball was 91.7 mph. In 2021, hitters saw the average fastball velocity rise to 93.8 mph — the highest on record (Baseball Reference). As written in Baseball America, “With rising velocity generally comes the ability to miss more bats and more margin for error. […] In the modern era, major league clubs have often prized velocity and hoped pitchers will learn how to pitch and learn how to command the ball.”
For most of history, a fastball was thrown to get ahead in the count, or to simply throw a strike when necessary. Today, with players getting bigger, faster, and stronger — learning how to maximize their bodies in the weight room and improve their arm strength and flexibility by throwing weighted balls — pitchers have created a faster, more powerful game for themselves when on the mound. With higher fastball velocity comes a reduced reaction time, leading to fewer hits, and less action on the field.
Sorry, Joey Gallo.
In reality, hitters are beginning to embrace the fact that when facing the new generation of flame-throwers, they are more likely than not to miss the barrel of the bat when the pitch is a strike. As a result, hitters are gearing up to swing for the fences in case they do barrel one up — likely sending it into the outfield seats and scoring at least one run. The reality is, there is no quicker way to score runs then by hitting a home run — and with more velocity, a positive for hitters is that a hard fastball will supply most of the power to hit a ball 400+ feet if struck well enough.
There are numerous statistics that support the case that offense is becoming more and more of a three-outcome possibility. Though the average runs per game has fluctuated unpredictably from 4.07 a game to 4.83 a game over the past decade, the league-wide .244 batting average in 2021 was the lowest it’s been since 1972, continuing to decline annually (Baseball Reference). Over the past five seasons in particular, the league’s average has dropped by a whopping eleven points. The walk-rate in 2021, just above 9%, was the ninth-highest mark since 1950, and the 7.83 hits per game were the second-lowest in league history (Baseball Reference). Even worse, the league-wide strike-out rate, 24%, set a new record for the 16th consecutive season (Washington Post).
Pitchers in 2021, though the stat has fluctuated between 3.23 and 3.39 since 2016, averaged 3.25 walks per game, which is a large jump from the 2.88 mark MLB saw in 2013 (Baseball Reference). The strikeout rate, between 8.68 and 8.81 from 2019 to 2021, has steadily risen from the 6.77 mark that pitchers posted in 2008 (Baseball Reference). Quite frankly, the further back in history the numbers show, the more the strikeout rate for pitchers declines. While a hit-by-pitch is a much rarer and more dispensable play in a baseball game, it is worth noting that the HBP rate, 0.43 per game in 2021, was the most frequent rate the league has seen since 1891, excluding the 2020 season (Baseball Reference). Over the last 10 seasons alone, the 0.43 mark rose from 0.31. In a similar manner of highlighting modern pitchers’ wildness, the wild pitch rate of 0.38 per game in 2021 has topped a pretty slight but steady increase over the past few decades (Baseball Reference).
It is worth acknowledging that these stats and the truths they portray are open to interpretation and opinion. While many fans might see more and more strikeouts, walks, and home runs as a worrisome issue for baseball, some fans might actually enjoy the new version of the game.
It is certainly enjoyable for fans, whether at the stadium or watching on TV, to see pitchers throwing 100+ mph and hitters launching balls 450+ feet. That said, the numbers display a problematic reality that MLB is experiencing a decline in on-field action, and it’s leading to a decline in viewership and attendance. In 2021, MLB saw 45.3 million fans attend regular-season games, which was a 33.9% drop from the 68.5 million in 2019, and the lowest figure since 1984 (Front Office Sports). The near 80 million attendees to games in 2007 is the all-time mark, and now MLB is dangerously approaching that number being cut in half during the 2022 season (Baseball Reference).
Away from the ballpark, regular-season viewership was down 12% in 2021 compared to 2019, and the approximately 11.75 million viewers during the 2021 World Series continued an alarming trend for MLB that averaged 25.47 million viewers for the 2003 World Series and even entertained 23.4 million in the 2016 Winter Classic (Sportsnaut).
It is certainly a possibility that an accumulation of minor details has made the game less enjoyable. On the surface, “a deadened baseball, the use of humidors in every major league stadium,” and an ever-so-prevalent usage of the shift has resulted in a first for MLB: A nearly 20-point “penalty between batting average and expected batting average and expected batting averaged based on batted-ball data” (USA Today). With expected slugging, xSLG, taking an even bigger hit — league-wide slugging percentage is right around .370, “well short of the .434 xSLG mark” — it is clear that the shift is taking away hits, balls are falling short like balloons, and changes need to be made (USA Today). The league-wide OPS is down under .680, which would be “the lowest full-season total sine 1972, before the introduction of the DH” (USA Today). Plus, even though the long ball has risen to be of paramount importance in terms of run-production over the past few decades, home runs are down to 0.91 per game, the lowest mark since 2014 and a 35% drop from 2019, which was largely regarded as a “juiced-ball year” when a league-wide record for home run was set (USA Today).
MLB’s current WHIP is below 1.250 for the first time in over 50 seasons, and it’s greatly declined since baseball saw a 1.408 WHIP in 2006 — proving the decline in base runners and action. Pitches per plate appearance has steadily risen since the turn of the century, jumping from 3.74 in 1999 to 3.97 in 2020. Additionally, the games themselves are longer. A nine-inning game in 2021 took an average of three hours and 10 minutes, 19 minutes longer than games took in 2011 (Baseball Reference).
Unfortunately, baseball is amidst a generation in which there is a large discrepancy between the players association and the owners, commissioner, and Major League Baseball itself. The game could strongly use a new era of player promotion, rule and gameplay changes, and more than anything, a fresh identity. First, the shift must go extinct. Whether it be rules implemented that force two infielders on either side of 2nd base or a complete prohibition of infielders on the outfield grass, a ban of the shift will minimize the amount of well-hit balls that are hits taken away by the defense, resulting in more base runners, more exciting, pressure-filled situations, and more action. Next, a league-wide survey regarding baseballs would help MLB find a balance between what pitchers desire and what hitters desire — likely resulting in a few more hits and homers, and less controversy.
Off the field, baseball is in dire need of player promotion. MLB is losing public interest, and a great deal of it can be blamed on the awful marketing the league does for its games and its players. There is a lack of player-fan connections, unlike those that are present in the NFL, NBA and NHL — three professional sports leagues that do a fantastic job advertising their players. It is for this reason that they have the lasting attention of fans that makes money and keeps the game enjoyable and relevant. MLB, however, does an extremely poor job of publicizing its players. When Ja Morant or Odell Beckham Jr. does something great, the highlight blows up all over social media instantly. When Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto does something incredible, it’s nowhere to be found.
MLB must also address the raging issue of blackout restrictions. For some fans who attempt to watch their favorite teams play, the games aren’t watchable on TV or devices. It’s impossible to grow the game if the game isn’t accessible to fans.
More than anything, the game needs to commence a more modern style of baseball etiquette and persuade players to embrace emotions, celebrations, and overall fun.
